Betting on Formula 1 is tough, or so they say. But there are strategies that can give you an edge. Sports betting is a long game—you win some, you lose some.
In Formula 1, there’s usually a clear pecking order. Typically, you can identify the fastest cars and drivers. However, the margins are so tight that small errors and minor factors can shift the results. That’s where we come in, spotting those opportunities.
Value Betting
At AceFormula, we focus on value bets. A value bet isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome or the “best” bet, but one that offers good odds relative to its chances of winning.
The idea is simple: by consistently betting on value, over time, you’ll hit enough winners to profit. Value bets usually offer better payouts.
A basic way to evaluate a value bet is this: if a bet pays 10-to-1, imagine the race happening 10 times. If the outcome you’re betting on would win more than once, it’s probably a value bet.
Key Factors
To determine if a bet offers value, you should consider several factors:
Weather Conditions
Heat, wind, or rain can add unpredictability to a race, often increasing the potential for value bets.
Driver Performance
Recent form and past performances can give clues about whether a driver has an edge on a particular circuit.
Car Performance
By following the season closely, you can spot whether a car is gaining or losing pace relative to others. Also, consider how the car suits the type of track.
Car Upgrades
Upgrades can be hit or miss—some make a big difference, while others barely change performance.
Bet Distribution
You might want to place a single bet on a race, which is perfectly fine. However, some prefer to spread their stake across multiple bets on the same race.
Here are a few tips for making multiple bets:
- Line Up Your Bets
Avoid placing too many bets on outcomes that cancel each other out, like 4 bets on the podium. If one bet guarantees a loss, you’re limiting your chances. Instead, aim for bets that give you a chance to win on all of them, even if unlikely. - Ensure at Least One Bet Returns
Structure your bets so that if just one hits, it at least covers the total amount you staked. This way, you minimize losses. - Use a Percentage Strategy
Allocate your bets by percentage, based on your confidence in the outcome. For example, you might place 20% on a win, 50% on a podium finish, and 30% on a Top 6/Top 20 finish.
Extreme Odds
Most betting platforms limit odds to around 500 or 1000, regardless of how unlikely an event may be. So, that 150-to-1 bet is unlikely to hit.
The same applies to very short odds. A win at 1.30 offers too little return, especially in Formula 1 where so many variables can affect the outcome. Even a strong favorite can lose, and to profit from such small odds, you’d need to win four times in a row to make up for a single miss.
Timing
Odds change all the time, subtly during the week prior to the race weekend and sometimes quite dramatically after Free Practice and especially Qualifying. So when is best?. Generally early the better, as odds often diminish closer to the weekend, yet not always. Betting after qualifying will diminish odds, particularly if your bet was a good forecast, as your driver is likely further up the order than predicted. Yet long shot value is always there when guessing on a dramatic, chaotic race.