Australia was a chaotic season opener, but the final result likely reflects the current pecking order. McLaren appear to be the fastest, while Ferrari may have slipped behind. Mercedes and Red Bull are still in the mix.
It’s hard to deny that McLaren have taken a step ahead of the rest in raw pace, and their rivals will be desperate to close the gap. However, with a long season ahead, there’s still time for teams to catch up.
Ferrari will be doing some head-scratching but are sure to fight back in the coming rounds. Mercedes are on an upward trajectory and should be hovering near the top. Meanwhile, Verstappen and Red Bull continue to fine-tune their car into contention regardless of the circuit.
Aside from Sainz’s misfortune, Albon showed that Williams could be the best of the rest—perhaps even competing with the top teams. China will be a key test of their raw speed, and Bahrain testing suggested their pace wasn’t just an outlier.
VCARB showed steady performance, while Alpine and Aston Martin seem stuck in the midfield with no notable gains so far. There have been glimpses of hope at Kick Sauber, while Haas appears to have dropped to the back of the field.
It’s important to note that the Australian GP was mostly wet, and the circuit isn’t as fast as Shanghai. We’re still yet to see how the cars perform on dry tires over full race distances.
Shanghai features the longest straight of the season and several high-speed, sweeping corners—offering a new test for the cars. We may see expectations reshuffled once again.
Value Spotting
For value, Ferrari, Mercedes, or possibly even Williams present interesting opportunities. A win for Piastri is very possible at much better odds than Norris. A value podium is hard to pick as the 3 next teams are close and still hard to gauge.
After his disastrous start in Australia, Lawson is at massive odds—even for top6. He’s a better driver than his season opener suggests.
Williams should be strong considering their test yet their high speed corners are the question.
Keep an eye out for strong odds on VCARB, Aston Martin, and Alpine for top-six and points finishes.