Wow, it’s not easy to determine the pecking order in F1 these days. In the past, we’ve often had a clear leader and one or two teams standing above the rest, but not now—and that’s fantastic for Formula 1 and its fans.

Breaking down the top four teams is fascinating because each has a legitimate case for having the winning car at Qatar. At the same time, each has its own reasons why they might fall short.

Mclaren
Mid-season, McLaren looked incredible, delivering dominant wins in Hungary, the Netherlands, and Singapore. It seemed like they might run away with the remainder of the season, possibly securing both championships. However, whether due to taking their eye off the ball or other teams stepping up, they’ve been drawn back into the tight margins of the top four.

The team claims Qatar will suit their car well, and they’ll certainly hope so, as falling behind Ferrari again could jeopardize their position in the Constructors’ Championship. Additionally, they didn’t anticipate their poor race pace in Las Vegas, which has raised questions.

That being said, this car is undeniably fast, and Norris is the market favorite for good reason. Both drivers have solid records at Qatar, so the McLaren pairing will be strong contenders.

Ferrari
They likely would have won Las Vegas if not for Mercedes bringing their A-game. They had a dominant performance in Austin, which has some features similar to Qatar. There’s no clear reason to expect a poor result from Ferrari at Qatar—they’re right in it.

Mercades
All season, the W15 has been a yo-yo. Just when it looks like it’s becoming a winning machine, it struggles—whether due to sensitivity to temperatures, balance issues, tires, or other factors. Yet, when conditions align perfectly, this car can be a beast.

Their dominance in Las Vegas seemed to be the result of Mexico’s upgrades finally tuned in. Interlagos might have shown much better performance had conditions been clearer. Mercedes could very well bring the quickest package to Qatar, but questions remain about their ability to handle high-speed corners. Finding that “sweet spot” might prove elusive again, though the night race’s cooler temperatures may again work in their favor.

Redbull
The RB20 still has life in it, and Max Verstappen is wringing every ounce of performance from it. The circuit may suit the car better than some of the recent ones, and Max will undoubtedly be at the sharp end of the grid.

Others
Alpine has found surprising pace over the last few races, performing well in varying conditions as they push to for the “best of the rest” status. Haas and VCARB are part of that fight as well. Williams has been inconsistent but capable on their day, while Aston Martin seems to have checked out for the year. Meanwhile, Stake is quietly clawing its way back into relevance.