Japan Post-Race

The rain never arrived, or rather it came well before the race began. As a result, the Grand Prix was largely clean and uneventful.

The Red Bull was well suited to the circuit, and driven superbly by Verstappen, they managed to come away with the win. Staying cool headed under constant pressure from the McLarens, Max held firm on a track that offered very few overtaking opportunities, edging out what could be seen as an unlikely result.

Ferrari and Mercedes looked fairly evenly matched throughout, with a similarly close contest among VCARBs and Williams, with others not far behind. Aston Martin will likely be left a little underwhelmed by their performance, while Bearman delivered a positive, but unexpected points finish.

Where Was the Value?

Verstappen’s win was good value, peaking around $7.

Antonelli for Top 6 was the best of the top team bets at $3.

Bearman’s points finish was into double digits before the weekend started.

Hadjar for points was reasonable, though not amazing value, as the RB pace has been noted.

Bahrain Pre-Race

Bahrain is a relatively high-speed circuit, and teams have already logged a lot of mileage here during testing. However, developments have progressed significantly since then, so those early results may hold less weight. That said, the rookies will be familiar with both the circuit and the car by now. There are some similarities to China, which may offer a better performance reference.

The location is typically very dry and warm, with temperatures forecasted to hover around 30°C. Warmer than usual conditions (compared to the past three rounds) could throw a twist into the results.

Value Spotting

Teams are consistently bringing updates, so movement within the tightly packed midfield is always possible.

Verstappen’s car may suit Japan more than Bahrain. Beating McLaren here would mark a big statement for Red Bull.

Ferrari and Mercedes remain closely matched, though Russell is slightly favored. A Ferrari upgrade could tip the scales, with podium value sitting at over $4.

The Racing Bulls (or VCARB—who knows with these names) seem to be leading the midfield, with the markets reflecting that. Williams isn’t far behind.

Aston Martin and Haas are further back, but their pace in China suggests they could be competitive here.

Alpine doesn’t look strong in the odds, although they had a few promising moments in Bahrain testing.

Kick Sauber likely remains outside the points conversation for now.

The triple-header begins with the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka, followed by Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Suzuka is a unique, medium-speed circuit featuring numerous winding corners, two short straights, and a hairpin. It’s a highly technical track, loved by many drivers, though not all. Known for its potential for rain, the circuit boasts excellent runoff drainage.

This weekend, we face a significant chance of a wet race, with a 60% probability of rain on Sunday and 40% on Saturday. This could favor drivers like Ocon, Antonelli, and Verstappen, potentially creating opportunities for long-shot bets.

The midfield remains unpredictable. Teams like Williams, VCARB, Haas, and Aston Martin could either excel or struggle, making them high-risk, high-reward picks for a top-six finish.

The top teams are closely matched, with McLaren currently showing a significant edge.

Shanghai saw high-speed circuit action with some surprises.

Williams underperformed expectations, while Haas rebounded strongly from their Australian struggles.

McLaren remained the frontrunner, though their advantage wasn’t as dominant as anticipated, with several cars near 10 seconds after 50 laps. Tire management proved crucial, as usual and will be the key to enduring race distances for wins.

Ferrari showed promise with a sprint win and solid qualifying, but still lagged behind Verstappen and Mercedes in race pace. Their disqualification due to car weight was a massive setback.

Alpine struggled, with no improvement with others gaining on them regularly whilst Haas demonstrated a significant up tick in pace, potentially due to track suitability.

VCARB impressed with their qualifying pace but faltered in the race due to strategy.

Mercedes displayed consistent competitiveness, posing a potential threat for future wins if they can find further performance gains.

Japan is next which offers another unique type track we are yet to experience this year and we hope for some more surprises.